The global business climate is deteriorating at a rapid pace: global insolvencies jumped 12% in early 2026 versus 2025. In a context marked by geopolitical tensions and rising cost pressures, Coface now forecasts a 6% rise in worldwide corporate insolvencies in 2026, more than double the initial estimate. In Spain, however, the trend has been positive versus last year, with a year-on-year decline of 10.3%. As a result, economists at the risk-management firm anticipate a more contained national trajectory for insolvencies, with an increase of between 2% and 3%.
The economic deterioration is already evident in the figures
The global business environment has weakened notably in recent months as the economic consequences of the Iran conflict have begun to spill over into activity. The 12% rise in insolvencies registered in early 2026, including a 22% increase in North America, illustrates the magnitude of the current shock and the rapid deterioration facing companies.
This trend is driven by recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, whose repercussions are starting to manifest in higher supply costs, greater volatility in energy prices, and increased uncertainty weighing on investment decisions.
Upward revisions to 2026 forecasts
Against this backdrop, Coface significantly raises its insolvency forecasts for 2026. Global insolvencies are now expected to rise around 6%, more than double the increase forecast earlier in the year.
Significant increases are expected in the United States (+8%), France (+8%) and Japan (+7%), while Germany and the Netherlands would see increases of around 5%. In Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom more moderate increases of 2–3% are projected.
Interest rates aggravate an already fragile situation
In this already fragile context, financing conditions continue to weigh heavily on companies. Despite the start of a tightening cycle easing, interest rates remain elevated after several years of monetary tightening, keeping borrowing costs high.
This constraint is even more pronounced given that companies are entering this phase with historically high debt levels. Consequently, even small changes in financing conditions can have a disproportionate impact: a rise of just 25 basis points in loan interest rates would be enough to accelerate defaults globally again and bring growth closer to the levels seen in 2025.
The persistence of elevated interest rates thus acts as an aggravating factor in an already deteriorating environment, limiting the ability of companies to refinance their debt and absorb new shocks.
Cyclical sectors on the front line
Pressures remain especially intense in the sectors most sensitive to the business cycle and to financing conditions. The construction, chemicals, and textiles sectors continue to be the most vulnerable due to their high exposure to production costs and demand.
In several major economies, these vulnerabilities are already having tangible impacts. For example, in the United States, the industrial and construction sectors are affected by higher financing costs and weakening demand. In Japan, the most indebted sectors are weakened by financing conditions that have become persistently tighter.
In Europe, in Germany, industry — particularly the chemical and construction sectors — remains under pressure due to high energy costs and weak activity. Meanwhile in France, the construction sector suffers from high interest rates, industry remains weakened by energy costs, and retail is hit by limited consumer purchasing power.
In Spain, Education (with year-on-year growth of 69.6% between 2026 and 2025), Health and Social Work (+9.4%), Financial and Insurance Activities (+6.3%) and Transport and Storage (+2.9%) are the sectors most exposed to business insolvencies.
Overall, in these sectors, the combination of high production costs, squeezed margins, and tighter access to financing significantly reduces the ability of businesses to adjust.
This vulnerability is even more pronounced for small and medium-sized enterprises, which tend to be less diversified and more exposed to cash-flow fluctuations. As a result, in several regions, these sectors are among the main contributors to the rise in insolvencies observed since 2025, underscoring the structurally entrenched nature of the pressures at play.
Government support, more limited reach
The relatively moderate level of insolvencies between 2020 and 2023 was largely due to broad government support in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
While support measures are being reintroduced in some countries, they remain significantly more limited in scope. In major European economies — including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom — fiscal support in 2022–2023 totaled roughly 2–4% of GDP. In contrast, current measures are much smaller, with the largest program observed in Spain at around 0.3% of GDP. Additionally, recent interventions are more targeted in nature.
While this should help the most vulnerable sectors and firms, it is unlikely to provide the broad cushion seen during previous crises. As a result, public policy capacity to contain the rise in insolvencies appears more limited.
