The demographic transformation is already here and represents one of the biggest challenges facing the U.S. labor market. Its effects will become increasingly visible in the coming years: a smaller pool of professionals, greater difficulty filling vacancies, and a rising risk of losing knowledge and experience as larger generations retire. In this context, the ability of companies to attract, develop, and retain their professionals, expand their talent base, and build more inclusive environments, capable of incorporating and leveraging underrepresented profiles in the labor market, will be decisive to sustain activity, productivity, and competitiveness.
Indeed, and according to projections by the U.S. Census Bureau, between 2030 and 2050 the United States will lose 1.8 million people aged 16 to 64, while the population aged 64 and older will increase by 4.8 million.
Given a reality already taking shape on the horizon, and within The Adecco Group’s social commitment, the Adecco Foundation’s Vulnerability and Employment Observatory has developed the analysis Inclusion and Employment in the Face of the Demographic Challenge. This work puts numbers to a transformation that in the coming decades will narrow the pool of people available to work, while the number of people over 64 will rise sharply. It is a situation that calls for activating all available levers to cushion the shortage of professionals, fill vacancies, and guarantee, in the long term, a sustainable economic and social future for the United States.
Inclusion will be one of the essential responses. Our labor market needs to mobilize the talent of senior professionals, people with disabilities, and other segments of the population who today face discrimination or barriers to participate in employment. Expanding the available workforce requires removing obstacles, strengthening employability, and creating real opportunities so that all that talent can contribute its capacity, experience, and potential.
The working-age population will peak in 2033
The population aged 16 to 64 will reach its maximum at the beginning of the next decade. In 2033 it will stand at around 33.7 million people and, from then on, will begin to decline to 31.6 million by 2050. In comparison with 2030, when it will be about 33.4 million, the reduction will be nearly 1.8 million people (5.4%). In parallel, the population aged 64 and over will rise from approximately 11.5 million in 2030 to 16.3 million in 2050, a growth of 41.7%.
The 5.4% reduction in the working-age population between 2030 and 2050 will narrow the demographic base that sustains employment, economic activity, and the social protection system. Even aside from the extension of working life or possible changes in the effective retirement age, this decline will coincide with a sharp increase in the population over 64, intensifying difficulties in finding professionals and filling vacancies, while raising the pressure on the financial sustainability of the pension system.
The challenge, therefore, requires bringing in new professionals and, at the same time, leveraging the talent already present, facilitating the stay of those who wish to continue working and raising the participation of people who today remain outside or on the margins of the labor market.
Generational turnover will not compensate for exits
The decline of the working-age population in the coming decades is largely explained by the gradual transition toward retirement age of the large generations born from the late 1960s and through the 1970s (baby boomers and part of Generation X). As these cohorts pass 64, they will leave the conventional working-age band.
At the same time, the generations entering at age 16 will be smaller as a result of low birth rates recorded since the 2010s and the forecast that this will remain below the replacement level (around 2.1 children per woman). This gap between the exiting and entering cohorts will shrink the potential pool of professionals.
Senior talent will continue to be a structural pillar
The transition of the larger generations toward retirement will temporarily reduce the weight of the 50- to 64-year-old cohort within the working-age population. In 2030, this group will represent 35.2% of people aged 16-64, compared with 32.7% projected for 2050.
However, this decline will not diminish the relevance of senior talent. Even in 2050, one in three potentially active people will be between 50 and 64 years old, since the generations occupying this band will remain larger than the younger cohorts entering the labor market, constrained by the low birth rates of the last decades.
More seniors than youths throughout the projected horizon
Currently, the 50- to 64-year-old population is 31.7% larger than the 20- to 34-year-old group. Although the gap will narrow to 24.9% by 2050, the senior band will maintain its numerical supremacy throughout the entire analyzed horizon.
This trend confirms that giving up senior experience would be a demographic and economic contradiction. In a context of lower talent availability, retaining older professionals—numerically more numerous than the young workforce—and facilitating their reintegration will be essential to meet hiring needs, prevent knowledge loss, and sustain business activity.
“The demographic challenge requires changing the way the United States understands and mobilizes talent. Inclusion must be at the center of that response: we cannot afford to leave people with disabilities, women at risk of exclusion, and other people facing barriers to employment on the margins when companies face a growing shortage of professionals. It is necessary to invest in employability, guidance, training, accessibility, and support, but also to remove prejudices and barriers that still limit access to work. It is also essential to retain and upskill senior talent, reduce the mismatch between available skills and those demanded by companies, improve productivity through digitalization and artificial intelligence, and orchestrate an orderly migration connected to real labor market needs. The response cannot rest on a single measure: it requires activating all available talent to guarantee a sustainable economic and social future,” notes Francisco Mesonero, executive director of the Adecco Foundation and sustainability of The Adecco Group.
Senior talent: a demographic pillar of the labor market
In a context of demographic aging, senior talent will be a structural part of the labor market. As this analysis shows, the population aged 50 to 64 will remain numerically larger than the 20 to 34 group for the coming decades. Even in 2050, when the movement of the most numerous generations toward retirement temporarily reduces its weight, this group will still represent about one third of the working-age population.
Older professionals bring experience, knowledge, and competencies such as maturity and composure, which organizations cannot afford to lose as vacancies become harder to fill. It will be essential to combat ageism, facilitate skill updates, and promote work environments that allow voluntary career longevity. Intergenerational coexistence will also be decisive: combining the experience of senior professionals with the fresh perspectives of younger generations will promote knowledge transfer, innovation, and team resilience.
“Ageism is an obstacle that the United States must overcome. For too long, age has been linked to lower capacity to learn, adapt, or be productive, when senior professionals bring experience, knowledge, commitment, and a strategic vision essential to organizations. In a country where senior workers will continue to represent around a third of the working-age population at least through 2050, discarding these professionals is a demographic and economic contradiction. It is urgent to break down prejudices, push for their professional updating, and make it easier for those who want and can continue working to find real opportunities to do so.” notes Francisco Mesonero, executive director of the Adecco Foundation and sustainability of The Adecco Group.
The extension of working life cannot rest solely on raising the legal retirement age. It requires creating conditions for people to be able, want to, and be capable of staying active for longer: continuous training, digital upskilling, risk prevention, job adaptation, flexible schedules, and gradual transitions toward retirement.
This proactive approach will help prevent premature exits from the labor market and leverage the experience of senior professionals. It will also foster a more balanced intergenerational coexistence, in which knowledge is transferred in a planned way and development opportunities reach across all ages.
