More than a month after the start of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, commodity markets remain under heavy pressure, with impacts that are already spreading to multiple industrial sectors and threaten to consolidate in the medium term.
Disruptions in supply via the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main strategic hubs for energy trade, continue to be the primary source of uncertainty. This context has sparked sharp tensions in the prices of oil, gas, and other key inputs, with uneven effects across regions, as highlighted by Coface analysts.
Energy at Record Highs and Unequal Regional Effects
The rise in energy costs remains the main driver of this crisis. In the United States, gasoline prices reached historic highs, while in Asia diesel prices had tripled since the outset of the conflict. In Europe, gas (TTF) rose by around 85% in just one month, reflecting the high dependence on external supply.
Although prices have shown some temporary stabilization in recent weeks, volatility remains elevated. The market remains highly exposed to any new disruption in the region, making near-term normalization difficult to forecast.
The Domino Effect Is Already Rippling Through Industry
Beyond energy, the impact is already cascading through the entire value chain. The rising costs of oil and gas are lifting production costs for materials such as plastics, petrochemicals, or fertilizers, generating a domino effect in key sectors like manufacturing, mining, and aviation.
Products such as naphtha, the base for the plastics industry, have recorded increases of more than 60%, while materials such as sulfur — key in mining processes — have also seen significant rises.
This cost pressure is already starting to translate into the final price of numerous goods, fueling inflationary tensions in various markets.
Fertilizers and Food: A Looming Risk
One of the most relevant focal points of concern is the impact on fertilizers. The rise in gas prices, which accounts for up to 80% of production costs in this sector, has driven increases of up to 37% in products such as urea.
Although for now the direct impact has been concentrated in certain markets, analysts warn that if disruptions persist, they could spread to large agricultural economies such as Brazil, India, or Europe, with potential consequences for food prices.
Aluminum and Metals Under Pressure
The metals sector is not immune to this situation either. Aluminum, particularly exposed to logistical disruptions in the Gulf region, has posted substantial gains, topping $3,500 per ton at times recently.
Disruptions in production and higher energy costs are affecting both supply and demand, creating uncertainty for industries heavily dependent on these materials.
Coface warns that how the conflict evolves will be decisive for market behavior. “Whether the situation prolongs or stabilizes will determine the scope of the impact on the value chain,” their analysts say.
In this context, companies face a highly volatile environment, where risk management, supplier diversification, and cost optimization will be key to maintaining competitiveness.
The current crisis once again highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical tensions. For many companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, higher raw material costs pose an additional challenge in a context already marked by inflation and economic uncertainty.
Far from being a one-off episode, all signs point to the crisis’s impact potentially lasting over time, forcing companies to rethink their procurement strategies and cost-management approaches in an increasingly complex environment.
