Although the general insolvency figures in Central and Eastern Europe stabilized overall in 2025, the latest Coface study on insolvencies in Central and Eastern Europe reveals a much more fragmented reality, with pronounced divergences between countries and sectors, increasingly shaped by divergent macroeconomic conditions.
Regionally, insolvency proceedings rose by only 0.26% in 2025, from 46,043 in 2024 to 46,161 in 2025. Inflation cooled, interest rates began to fall, energy markets improved and wage pressures eased, providing partial relief for company margins. However, these improvements did not translate into a uniform recovery for firms across the region.
“The headline figures suggest stabilization, but the underlying reality is much more complex,” says Mateusz Dadej, Coface regional economist. “The gap between countries is widening and the insolvency dynamics are increasingly determined by national factors, such as regulatory frameworks, fiscal policy and exposure to external demand.”
In this sense, Coface expects corporate insolvencies to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in 2026, as renewed cost pressures, external dependencies and policy uncertainty test the resilience of businesses across the region.
National-level divergences dominate the regional landscape
At the country level, three distinct patterns emerged across the region in 2025. Insolvency trends diverged sharply in Central and Eastern Europe, with some economies posting double-digit declines while others showed equally steep increases.
Poland recorded the largest uptick, with insolvencies rising by +17.8%, reflecting to a large extent the increasingly widespread use of restructuring procedures rather than a sudden deterioration in business activity. Slovenia (+12.9%), Serbia (+9.6%), the Czech Republic (+8.7%) and Romania (+3.8%) also posted higher insolvency levels, driven by a combination of tighter fiscal measures, political uncertainty, weak external demand and deteriorating payment habits.
Conversely, Croatia (-18.6%), Slovakia (-14.5%), Lithuania (-13%), Latvia (-7.4%), Hungary (-6.6%) and Bulgaria (-6.2%) recorded notable declines, signaling a gradual normalization after earlier peaks linked to the energy crisis, regulatory changes and the unwinding of exceptional pandemic-era measures.
Estonia (+1.1%) remained broadly stable, illustrating how apparent national resilience can still mask sector-specific pressures.
Persistent pressure in cyclical sectors
From a sectoral standpoint, insolvency patterns were more homogeneous across the region. The sharpest increases in business bankruptcies were observed in manufacturing, construction and transportation, reflecting their sensitivity to financing conditions and swings in external demand. While the drop in interest rates and inflation moderation provided some relief, tighter pricing power and the lagged effects of prior cost crises continued to pressure liquidity, especially for smaller firms.
Looking ahead, it is unlikely that any apparent stabilization will hold in 2026. Coface expects insolvency risks in Central and Eastern Europe to intensify in 2026 as a new energy crisis affects both households and businesses. The sharp rebound in oil and gas prices is already translating into higher input costs, shrinking margins and forcing companies to absorb or pass on higher costs in an environment where demand remains fragile. As a net energy-input importer, the region remains especially exposed.
Mitigation measures, such as fuel price caps or tax reliefs, can provide short-term relief for household budgets. However, they come with higher fiscal pressure and potential risks to supply security. At the same time, rising insolvencies in Germany, the region’s most important trading partner, raise the danger of contagion through trade and supply-chain links.
“Favorable factors appear on the horizon, such as accelerated absorption of EU funds and stronger external demand by the end of 2026,” notes Jarosław Jaworski, Coface’s regional managing director for Central and Eastern Europe. “However, it is unlikely that these positives will fully offset energy volatility. As the operating environment becomes more challenging again, companies should focus on liquidity management, cost control and counterparty risk.”
